Staying Focused During Uncertain Times

Recent hostilities in the Middle East have understandably created concern and short-term volatility in global markets. When geopolitical events unfold quickly, markets often react just as quickly.

Oppenheimer’s Chief Investment Strategist, John Stoltzfus, notes an important historical pattern: while markets typically respond negatively at the onset of military conflict or geopolitical stress, those declines have most often been relatively short-lived.

Once investors process the immediate risks, markets tend to refocus on fundamentals — economic activity, corporate earnings, rebuilding efforts, and the ongoing needs of businesses and consumers. History shows that life continues, economies adapt, and markets often recover — sometimes with notable strength.

In other words, separating the signal from the noise is critical. Headlines can drive emotion in the short term, but long-term market direction is driven by broader economic forces.

What We’re Watching Now

Oppenheimer’s Head of Technical Analysis, Ari Wald, is closely monitoring key market levels that help gauge the health of the current trend.

Importantly, while some large technology stocks have shown weakness, the broader, equal-weighted S&P 500 index remains above its 50-day average — a constructive sign that market participation is not narrowly concentrated.

Volatility, while uncomfortable, is not unusual. Even in strong years, markets often experience temporary pullbacks. Historically, mid-term presidential years have averaged peak-to-trough declines of around 10%, even when finishing positive.

Seasonally, markets also tend to be softer from May through September, followed by a historically stronger period beginning in the fourth quarter and extending into the following year.

At this time, the firm has not observed the types of warning signals that typically precede major market tops. As such, it is recommended to view mid-year weakness as temporary and remain focused on longer-term opportunities.

Oppenheimer’s Perspective

Periods like this test discipline. They also reinforce why maintaining a long-term plan matters.

Oppenheimer remains committed to monitoring developments closely and adjusting as conditions warrant. In the meantime, our guidance remains consistent: stay focused on your long-term objectives rather than short-term market swings.

If you have questions or would like to review your portfolio positioning, you can find an Oppenheimer Financial Professional in your area here.