The Case for Staying Invested

With Election Day here, it’s worth lifting our eyes past it. Since 1948, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 13.9% during the twelve months following a midterm election, compared with an average gain of 5.8% during comparable periods of non-midterm years — one of the more consistent, and more frequently cited, patterns in market history.

Each of those twelve-month stretches was shaped far more by earnings, interest rates, inflation, and global events than by the composition of Congress. Post-election periods have coincided with recoveries — but also with recessions, rate shocks, and geopolitical crises. This is a tendency, not a mechanism.

Over the past several weeks we’ve looked at what the historical record shows: midterm years have been noisier, pullbacks have run deeper, and the twelve months after have historically been stronger than average. It’s a real pattern. It isn’t a strategy — and 2026 spent most of the year ignoring it entirely.

Which leaves the conclusion history has repeatedly reinforced: long-term outcomes are driven more by time in the market than by timing the election. The relevant horizon for most of your money isn’t tomorrow — it’s the next decade, and over that horizon the identity of the 2026 Congress will almost certainly rank well below your savings rate, your asset allocation, and your willingness to stay invested through uncomfortable stretches.

For additional insights on the upcoming midterm elections and potential market implications from Oppenheimer's Chief Investment Officer, click here to read.