Good Morning,
I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving! Black Friday shopping set new records this year with online shoppers spending ~$11.8 billion, up ~9.1% from 2024 according to Adobe Analytics. This is a good sign as we think ahead to Q4 earnings.
Markets opened lower this morning coming off a strong rally last week. The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) hinted that they are considering a rate hike in December which could raise Japanese yields and negatively affect the Yen-carry trade (process where investors borrow Yen cheaply and invest it into higher yielding assets abroad). I don’t think this is an imminent threat to domestic markets but I do think it is feeding some of this morning’s negative sentiment. Rates are set to move in the opposite direction stateside with a near 100% chance of a 0.25% cut on December 10th. President Trump indicated he has decided on his Fed Chair pick coming in May. Many anticipate this to be President Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett. Hassett is a veteran economist and is largely more dovish than hawkish when it comes to rate policy. This set-up, coupled with early indications of a strong holiday shopping season, bodes well for future earnings. I do continue to favor strong cash flow companies with consistent earnings growth. Please reach out with additional questions.
Attached, please find this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist of Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great week!