Good Morning,
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and are prepared to have a Happy New Year! The year sure seemed to fly by, as they always do.
Markets opened modestly lower this morning, with losses coming from some heavyweight tech giants. It’s hard to say what the new year will bring, but I think AI spend and the path of interest rates will continue to drive momentum. Should we see a resolution in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, I think this will be healthy for markets around the world. As we enter the 1st quarter of 2026, I will be focused on Q4 earnings for 2025. These will begin reporting around mid-January and should shed light on the health of the consumer. With some changes to the tax code under the One Big Beautiful Bill, tax refunds are projected to be larger this year on average. This could provide a spending infusion to the economy and/or help paydown consumer debt. Oppenheimer has an S&P 500 year-end price target for 2026 of 8,100. This implies about a 17% rise from current levels. I think this is possible and most dependent on the lack of “black swan” events over the course of the year. I look forward to working with each of you in the new year and appreciate the continued trust you place in me and my team.
The normal “Market Strategy Radar Screen” report will return January 5th. In place of this, click here to read some of my recommendations for everyone as we enter a new year.
I wish everyone a safe, healthy, and prosperous new year!
(Our offices will be closed January 1st, 2026)