Good Morning,
Happy 4th of July week! The weather here in Michigan looks amazing over the next few days!
Markets opened higher this morning after the S&P 500 finished Friday at a fresh all-time high. The US and China appear to have reached an agreement to prevent the return of 145% tariffs while Canada withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies. President Trump also noted that he is open to extending the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline. Combined, investor confidence has risen and the market is anticipating between 2-3 rate cuts over the duration of the year with the first being priced in September. Should we see additional progress on trade/tariffs, I think the Fed will be more inclined to cut as inflation would likely cool. We get the latest jobs data for June on Thursday which will provide a key read on current economic strength. I like the set-up building with positive market momentum around trade that will likely intensify should we see rates come down later this year. Q2 earnings begin to report on the 15th which I will be watching closely.
Attached, please find this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist of Oppenheimer Asset Management. An updated max drawdown page and a look at the price of gold, are among the topics.
Have a great week and Happy 4th of July weekend!
(Our offices and the markets will be closed Friday, July 4th.)