Good Morning,
Happy New Year to everyone as we plug back into reality. I’m excited for what the year may bring and the opportunity to work with each of you!
Markets opened higher this morning after the daring US raid on Venezuela Saturday morning that captured Maduro and his wife. President Trump has floated plans for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s oil industry which has energy stocks moving higher. Even though Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, oil prices have remained steady so far which I think relates to the capital that would be required to upgrade infrastructure in order to increase production. This is a fluid story we will continue to monitor. Stateside, it’s a data intensive week that culminates with the December jobs report on Friday. Markets are pricing in a low probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January 28th meeting with ~2.4 total cuts priced over the course of the year. Should we see a strong December jobs report, coupled with what was a strong Q3 2025 GDP number (4.3% growth), I would expect rate cut projections to decline further. The S&P 500 earnings outlook for 2026 remains solid which I always fall back on as the core driver of stock prices. My narrative near-term around higher cash flow, value centric companies, remains the same as we enter 2026.
Attached, please find this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist of Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great week!