Good Morning,
I hope everyone had a great weekend. And let me be the first to say—May the 4th be with you!
Major market indices finished last week trading at or near all-time highs. The market narrative remains fluid and somewhat bifurcated. On one hand, corporate earnings have largely exceeded expectations, providing a tailwind for equities and reinforcing the broader AI-driven growth narrative. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to ebb and flow, with a peace agreement still proving elusive.
The U.S. has denied Iran’s claims that it struck a U.S. warship attempting to pass through the Strait. Whether acted upon or not, threats from Iran have escalated in response to President Trump’s “Project Freedom,” which is designed to help guide commercial ships safely through the Strait. Despite these developments, pressure on equities has remained relatively contained, largely due to strong underlying fundamentals driven by earnings outperformance.
I view it as a bullish sign that markets are trading more on fundamentals rather than headlines. That said, I continue to believe we could be poised for a meaningful move higher should a peace agreement with Iran be reached.
Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions. Attached is this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great week!