I hope everyone had a great weekend. Father’s Day is this Sunday—if you’re planning to hit the links, be sure to get those tee times booked!
Markets appear poised to build on Friday’s momentum, as reports indicate that an agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been reached, with a formal signing expected this Friday in Geneva. The market’s initial reaction has been noticeably positive: oil prices are sharply lower as the supply risk premium fades, and yields are declining as inflation concerns ease.
It will be interesting to see how the next few days play out, but for now, markets are firmly in a risk-on mode. This Wednesday brings the first Fed meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, which is likely to attract outsized attention given his historically hawkish stance on rate policy. While rates are expected to remain unchanged this week, a more dovish tone from Chair Warsh could prove bullish for markets in the back half of the year.
We are about a month away from the start of Q2 earnings season, which should provide additional insights for investors. The bull case for equities remains straightforward: lower energy prices, easing inflationary pressures, and a clearer path toward central bank easing.
As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions.
Attached is this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great week and happy Father’s Day!
(Note: Our offices, and the markets, will be closed this Friday, the 19th, in observance of Juneteenth.)