I hope everyone had a great weekend. Tomorrow marks the official start of fall! For those interested in tracking peak fall colors, click here to follow the forecast for your specific location.
Markets opened broadly higher this morning, coming off a week that saw the Fed deliver its first rate hike since 2023.
What I found most interesting was the reaction in the Treasury market. Following the hike, short-term Treasury yields moved sharply higher, while longer-term yields remained comparatively contained. To me, this suggests investors believe tighter monetary policy can help keep longer-term inflation expectations under control, at least for now.
The obvious elephant in the room remains elevated oil prices, which will likely begin to filter through to more businesses and consumers. Encouragingly, President Trump has indicated that he would be open to meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week.
I continue to believe the underlying economy remains resilient and could provide the foundation for the market's next leg higher should oil prices meaningfully recede.
This week also brings another Trump-Xi summit, with investors hopeful for progress on trade, AI, and other areas of U.S.-China relations. Given the number of geopolitical headlines influencing markets, I continue to fall back on corporate earnings, which have remained resilient.
The value narrative has outperformed, and I remain optimistic as we approach Q4. Please reach out with any additional questions or comments.
Attached is this week's Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great week!