Good Morning,
I hope the week is off to a great start for everyone!
The market remains headline driven as hostilities in the Middle East continue to evolve. Yesterday, talks of de-escalation and a possible ceasefire with Iran drove a significant rally in stocks. It’s unclear how accurate some of these reports are but this morning, stocks opened lower after overnight missile and drone attacks by Iran targeted several Israeli cities. I think it’s clear that any sustained de-escalation, with the ultimate goal of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, will ring in a sharp relief rally across risk assets. Between now and then, I think it’s imperative investors remain patient given the velocity of this market. Stateside, it’s a macro heavy week that includes March PMI data this morning and jobless claims on Thursday. The Fed is in an interesting position as what was once a shoo-in for rate cuts has turned into some calls for rate hikes. While I don’t think hiking would be appropriate, elevated oil prices will likely limit further cutting near-term. All things considered; the value narrative remains my focus as we continue to navigate this geopolitical landscape. Please continue to reach out with any questions/comments.
Attached, please find this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Have a great rest of the week!