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The purpose of this letter is not to forecast the coming year but rather to outline the risks that I am concerned about and provide us with a game plan if any of those risks materialize.
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The first quarter of the 21st Century is over. Looking back across that period can inform our current situation and help us filter the noise that permeates the news and befogs the current investment landscape.
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The second quarter of ‘25 began with the tariff panic surrounding the President’s Liberation Day speech. The imposition of a consumption tax by calling it Liberation Day gave the President’s opponents another reason to run in circles with their hair on fire and it gave markets a reason to sell off in dramatic fashion.
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