Asset Management
10/20/2025 Market Strategy
October 20, 2025
Key Takeaways
This week greets investors with 88 of the S&P 500’s companies scheduled to release Q3 results. Among those names are widely held and followed companies including companies among sectors that represent big US banks, major auto makers, beverage companies, media streaming, defense equipment manufacturing, precious metals and information technology.
The weakness in oil prices seen last week based on plentiful supply and concerns about economic growth continues to suggest that the price of oil could help drive headline inflation lower...
We expect that earnings will be key to the direction markets take this week as the US government shutdown enters its third week causing disruption of the flow of much of the economic data issued by government agencies that often carries significant weight with market participants in the day-to-day direction stock prices. That said, with the CPI an expected exception to the current data “blackout” this Friday, a key piece of economic data will be available to influence investor sentiment at the end of the week.
So far, with just 58 companies in the S&P 500 having reported earnings, results have surprised to the upside with some 84% of those reported delivering upside surprises that beat consensus analyst expectations and helped support the market last week.
Stocks bounced between gains and losses buffeted by US/China tariff and rare earth retaliation risks and concerns amid the fintech and regional banks space on news of some difficulty several institutions are having or may have with loans. That not-withstanding, the S&P 500 closed up on three days (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) with the benchmark posting a gain of 1.7% on the week.
Notwithstanding the risks crossing the proverbial tape, the fact that big US corporations were beating expectations and guidance when provided by managements suggested enough resilience to provide stocks with a “ticket to ride.”
The bond market helped too with the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipping some on the potential for a cut in rates when the Fed FOMC meets later this month.
Gold last week closed on Thursday at a new record high of $4,326. Though it shed 1.73% on Friday to end the week 5.83% above where it had closed the prior week. In our view, foreign central bank purchases among emerging markets (including China, Russia, and India among others) to shore up their currency against the US dollar persists as a strong supporter to the precious metal.
In our view, while US and global private investor purchases naturally support the current gold surge this cycle, the likely size and perseverance of foreign central bank purchases would seem to us a driver likely not to tire of the allure of gold as private investors have in previous cycles, once a stickiness in inflation subsides.
The weakness in oil prices seen last week based on plentiful supply and concerns about economic growth continues to suggest that the price of oil could help drive headline inflation lower with the core inflation likely to release its sticky grip on the economic landscape to eventually follow for the Fed to cut rates with any kind of enthusiasm for the action.
We remain positive on stocks as our favorite asset class with fixed income complementary as a source of current income in diversified portfolios.
“Time in the market rather than timing the market” remains a favorite mantra for us along with a suggestion to seek “babies that get thrown out with the bathwater” in market downdrafts.
Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.
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