Biopharma M&A and Strategic Collaboration Insights (Q1'23 and FY'22)

The latest edition of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.’s Quarterly Biopharma M&A and Strategic Collaboration Insights Report is now available upon request.

There are a multitude of viable reasons why Biopharma companies turn towards M&A, and no two deals are ever the same. We analyze key sector and transaction trends for 2022 and YTD2023 and elucidate some commonalities and differences.

Keypoints:

Current State of the M&A and Strategic Collaboration Market

• 2023 Biopharma M&A has started off strong with the $43.0B acquisition of Seagen and several $1B+ acquisitions including Provention Bio and Cincor
• Momentum continues into Q2’23 as Merck cashes in on Prometheus Biosciences for $10.8B and GSK acquires BELLUS Health for $2.0B
• Biopharma M&A activity reached all-time highs between 2019 and 2020, yet slowed substantially during 2021 and 2022, contrary to bullish expectations from the Street
• Looking back, deal volume in 2022 was up overall YoY due to a flurry of mid-to-late year acquisitions; however, transaction values were relatively nominal
• 2022 ended on a high note via the $28.3B acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics and Takeda’s acquisition of Nimbus Therapeutics’ TYK2 inhibitor for $5.0B
• Every big pharma company has a unique risk appetite that caters to company specific needs: commercial stage, early clinical, vs. preclinical assets
• Recent trends in acquisitions point to green lit commercial drugs, or close-to-market assets that can immediately fill revenue gaps
• This diverse risk appetite has yielded a shift away from strictly M&A, and towards strategic collaboration deals
• Preclinical assets continue to be high demand targets for collaboration deals as innovation continues for novel treatment modalities

Deal Catalysts

• Excess cash reserves at big pharma and large biotech
• Steep and fast-approaching patent cliff for big pharma
• Mega-blockbusters set to lose exclusivity over the next six years represent the biggest threat to commercial drug sales in decades
• Three drugs facing near-term loss of exclusivity have generated $50.3B in combined LTM⁽¹⁾ global revenues alone: AbbVie’s Humira ($21.2B), Merck’s Keytruda ($20.9B) and BMS’ Opvido ($8.2B)
• A challenging IPO market underpinned by low biotech valuations
• Profound clinical data and positive newsflow
• Declining COVID-19 vaccine revenue

Deal Headwinds

• Ambiguous macroeconomic outlook coupled with rising costs / inflation concerns
• An increasingly less predictable FDA
• Fragile supply chains and escalating costs of talent / human capital
• Decreasing risk appetite to take on early-stage programs whose funding requirements will eat into profits
• Bottom line P&L impacts from the new drug price negotiation legislation beginning in 2026 signed in to law through the IRA
• Increased FTC scrutiny (e.g. FTC issued Opinion and Order for Illumina / Grail)

Please reach out to Michael Margolis, R.Ph. ([email protected]), Daniel Parisotto, PhD ([email protected]), or Robert Lewis ([email protected]) directly to request a copy.