Fun Facts

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t been this calm in three decades. Dow industrials moving less than 0.1% in either direction for five straight sessions
  • Historically, US stocks usually bottom by late October in post-election years, before rallying into year-end.
  • When the Fed cuts interest rates within 2% of stock market all-time highs, the SPX has gone on to finish higher over the next 12 months 20 out of 20 times (100% hit rate).
  • Nearly 60% of companies have raised their forward guidance for full-year EPS.
  • U.S. Treasury just bought back $4 Billion of its own debt, one of the largest Treasury buybacks in history.
  • President Trump bought more than $100 million in bonds since January, filings show.
  • Since the 2020 pandemic low, vacant office space has nearly DOUBLED (to put this into perspective, the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak was ~15%, or 5 percentage points BELOW current levels).
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s cautions investors about an AI bubble forming.
  • META freezes hiring artificial intelligence talent.
  • MIT report questioned the broad profitability of AI technology.
  • GOOGLE Is Beating APPLE on Smartphone AI.
  • APPLE iPhone and other foreign-branded phones had June sales to China that dropped 31.3% from a year earlier.
  • Oil is in a downtrend
  • Copper is in a downtrend
  • Gold is in a uptrend

At its core, the US economy is almost entirely built around the consumer. How (and sometimes more importantly, where) people spend their money can offer unique insights into the state of the market. After all, when people are optimistic about their future earnings potential, they are more likely to splurge on excess/luxury goods. On the other hand, a more cautious consumer is more likely to forgo a morning cup of coffee or new pair of shoes until the overall economic picture gets a bit more clear.  Walmart reported strong earnings, while Target reported weaker than expected earnings.  TJ Maxx reported strong earnings, as did Nike and all three credit card companies (Visa, Mastercard and American Express) – so now what?

If you, like many others, would look at the data above and find it hard to draw any specific conclusions, I dare say you would not be alone.  Thus, the difficulty in making macro-type predictions about the economy or the stock market.  Conclusion:  Maybe put less emphasis on what the “talking heads” on CNBC, or any other financial news network have to say, and put more emphasis on specific companies and how they are doing…


Still confused?

 

Do not hesitate to call us to discuss how these, and other factors, may impact your portfolio.


All the best,

Scott