Good Morning,
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Summer has officially arrived, with a full week of 90-degree days ahead!
Markets opened higher this morning following a week marked by internal rotation. Mega-cap technology and AI-linked stocks pulled back, while broader equities remained largely resilient. The S&P 500 has been rangebound over the past several weeks, which I view as a healthy indicator following its strong run-up off the March 30 lows.
Crude fell ~10% last week, helping to ease some pricing pressures. However, geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend, with news this morning that U.S. and Iranian officials are now scheduled to meet in Doha tomorrow. In my view, unless we see a meaningful reversal in diplomatic progress or a sharp spike in oil prices, markets are looking past day-to-day headlines related to Iran.
My primary focus this week shifts to central bank communication and labor market data. The European Central Bank’s annual gathering of global policymakers in Portugal will be closely watched, with Fed Chair Warsh’s first major public appearance outside the U.S. serving as a potential policy catalyst. Additionally, the June payroll report will be released on Thursday. A strong reading could put upward pressure on interest rates, while softer data would support expectations for easing.
Overall, I continue to favor a value tilt within equities and anticipate further broadening in market leadership.
Attached is this week’s Market Strategy Radar Screen Report from John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
I hope everyone has a happy and safe 4th of July weekend!
(Note: Our offices and the markets will be closed on Friday, July 3, in observance of Independence Day.)