Skip to Main

06/17/2024 Market Strategy

  • John Stoltzfus
  • June 17, 2024

How High the Moon?

Last week marked the 20-month anniversary of the bull market

Key Takeaways

  • Information technology stocks rose 6.4% last week, pulling the S&P 500 index 1.6% higher, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 3.2%.
  • Last week’s consumer price index data showed a cooling in inflation at both the headline and core rates in May. This was followed by softer-than-expected data on producer prices for the same month, suggesting that price pressures may once again be easing.
  • With the FOMC meeting, May CPI report, and earnings season in the rearview mirror, investors will likely focus in this holiday-abridged week on economic data and company specific news for clues as to the direction the markets will take in the near term. 
fed building

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite posted their latest record highs last week driven by economic data that revived expectations for a Fed rate cut sooner than later from some investors and pushed technology stocks higher driven by fund flows, earnings results, and prospects for innovation to carry the sector higher.

While the Federal Reserve in its FOMC meeting last week maintained a wait and see approach as to when and if it will cut its benchmark rate this year a moderation in the inflation rate from the latest CPI and PPI data raised market participant appetite for risk assets that pushed stocks higher, raised bond prices and lowered bond yields. The CPI index measured inflation running at its lowest pace in three years.

While the moderation in the pace of inflation raised sentiment for risk assets particularly for large cap technology and tech-related names last week other investors expressed concerns that the Fed might cut rates just once or not at all. This rekindled recession worries among some managers and pundits.

Quotation from Aenean Pretium

The operative word in our view remains “resilience” with the Fed still on pause and inflation still stickier than desired keeping the Fed’s 2% inflation target elusive for now.

Earnings Wrapped Up

With 499 companies in the S&P 500 having reported results for Q1 eight sectors delivered positive results with six (communications services 41.3%, utilities 30.5%, consumer discretionary 29.7%, information technology 25.6%, financials 11.3% and real estate 10.5%) of those eight reporting double digit earnings growth in the year over year period. Just three sectors reported negative earnings growth of which all three showed double digit declines (energy -25.7%, health care -25.6% and materials -21.5%).

Overall the S&P 500 showed earnings growth of 7.9% on the back of 4.2% revenue growth exceeding expectations at the start of the Q1 season for earnings growth of 3.9%.

With just one company (belonging to the consumer staples sector) left to report for Q1 investors will likely focus in this holidayabridged week on economic data and company specific news for clues as to the direction the markets will take in the near term.

Focus on the Fed

In our view the good news for US investors in terms of the Fed is that it has been remarkably sensitive in applying its mandate to curb inflation this rate hike cycle and so far been able to avoid pushing the economy into a recession. The economy, business, the consumer and job growth persist in showing signs of resilience in data and earnings results released through the last week.

While there is evidence of some slowing it should come as no surprise considering the Fed’s 11 rate hikes and eight pauses since March of 2022.

The operative word in our view remains “resilience” with the Fed still on pause and inflation still stickier than desired keeping the Fed’s 2% inflation target elusive for now.

We remain positive on equities and continue to see fixed income securities as complimentary to stocks in providing portfolio diversification.

Some near-term profit-taking in the day to day action of the market particularly in segments of the market that have had exceptional run-ups since last year into this year should be expected and continues to appear to us quite normal.

Such activity combined with a process of rebalancing and rotation into other segments of the stock market in our view can be healthy and should contribute to the broadening of the markets’ progress from last year through this year.

Near-term volatility could in our view continue to present opportunity for investors to “catch babies that get thrown out with the bath water” in periods of market down drafts as the market digests levels of uncertainty that are not uncommon to times of transition in monetary policy like these and in periods of rising geopolitical risk.

John Stoltzfus headshot

John Stoltzfus


Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.

John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.

Hide Bio


Strategist Certification - The author certifies that this investment strategy report accurately states his/her personal views about the subject securities, which are reflected in the substance of this investment report. The author certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this investment strategy report.

The strategy provided in this report is provided by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., (“OAM”) a registered investment adviser affiliate of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. (“OPCO”). It reflects analysis of fundamental, macroeconomic and quantitative data to provide investment analysis with respect to U.S. securities markets. The overview in this report is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security or investment advisory services. The report is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should use the analysis provided by this report as one input into formulating an investment opinion and should consult with their Financial Advisor. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review of other strategy reports generated by OAM, its affiliates, and looking at alternate analyses. Securities and other financial instruments that may be discussed in this report or recommended or sold by OPCO or OAM are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments involve numerous risks including market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. Securities and other financial investments at times may be difficult to value or sell. The value of financial instruments may fluctuate, and investors may lose their entire principal investment.

Strategist Certification - The author certifies that this strategy report accurately states his/her personal views about the subject matter reflected in the substance of this report. The author certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this strategy report.

Potential Conflicts of Interest: Strategic analysts employed by OAM are compensated from revenues generated by the firm. The strategists authoring this piece also contribute to an OAM managed portfolio product that relies on and trades on the information contained herein. The managed portfolio strategy trades frequently, both ahead of and after the publication of this report. OAM generally prohibits any analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such analyst covers. Additionally, OAM generally prohibits any analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% (or more) ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, OPCO may have a long positon of less than 1% or a short position or deals as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon and makes a market in the securities discussed herein. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

Third Party Research Disclosure OAM has a research sharing agreement with OPCO pursuant to which OPCO provides OAM Strategy thought pieces to its institutional and retail customers. OPCO does not guarantee that the information in OAM Strategy reports is accurate, complete or timely, nor does OPCO make any warranties with regard to the strategy product or the results obtained from its use. OPCO has no control over or input with respect to opinions found in OAM strategy pieces. OAM is a registered investment adviser affiliate of OPCO.

This report is issued and approved by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., a member of all Principal Exchanges, and SIPC. This report is distributed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., for informational purposes only, to its institutional and retail investor clients. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The strategist writing this report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security discussed in this report, the recipient should consider whether such investment is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal.

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report. All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation. 

Investment Strategy should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser.

This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the content of linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged value-weighted index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index figures do not reflect any fees, expenses or taxes. This research is distributed in the UK and elsewhere throughout Europe, as third party research by Oppenheimer Europe Ltd, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This research is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This report is for distribution only to persons who are eligible counterparties or professional clients and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the UK only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) High Net Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. In particular, this material is not for distribution to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FCA. Neither the FCA’s protection rules nor compensation scheme may be applied. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Copyright © Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2024.