Asset Management
11/24/2025 Market Strategy
November 24, 2025
Stocks Been Bouncin’ and Swingin’
Stock Prices Have Reflected the Issues at Hand in the Government’s R e - Opening
Key Takeaways
- A survey from the US Farm Bureau shows the typical Thanksgiving dinner costing 5% less in 2025 than in 2024 – the third price decline in three years.
- Q3 earnings season continues to show better than expected results. Thus far, with 474 (95%) companies of the S&P 500 having reported, earnings are up 13.1% on the back of revenue growth of 8.3%. Prior to the start of the season, FactSet put expected earnings growth at 8% from a year earlier.
- Of the 11 sectors, ten have reported positive earnings growth in Q3. Just one sector shows negative earnings growth and that in single digits.
- This week just 11 companies of the S&P 500 are scheduled to report as the season slowly winds down; results of another 11 are due the week of December 1.
At least for now market participants including bulls, bears, and skeptics are pondering just how long it will take to restore the data flow that the Fed, economists, strategists, and planners on Wall Street and Main Street rely upon to judge things like the strength of the economy and the level of inflation.
As a result, expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board at its December 10 meeting reflected in Fed futures have surged, plummeted, and bounced in recent weeks.
As we get closer to December and the data flow resumes and improves, market participants’ worries may be eased significantly.
For all the value that alternative data providers and private sources can offer, the missing data from government agencies is causing the markets to wobble and investor sentiment to sour near term. The slate of information available to ascertain what the Fed’s rate decision in December might be lacks the level of clarity that the market is accustomed to having.
The question at hand for traders and investors for now appears to be: How well will the Fed be able to judge the condition of the consumer and job market as well as the level of inflation when it makes its interest rate decision on December 10?
Will AI Investment Pay Off?
The other question s rattling market sentiment is around AI and whether the heady investment into it will it prove sufficiently profitable to its developers to justify the current and projected costs of building out its supporting infrastructure and whether the higher multiples ascribed to those companies’ stock prices are justified.
We think the demand generated by business and consumer users of AI should ease the market’s worries in the not-too-distant future based on current usage and the likelihood that it will continue to grow. Greater efficiencies derived already from usage by business and the usefulness provided to consumers suggest there’s more to come in a positive way from what we believe is the latest watershed period of innovation in technology.
Our assessment of the landscape has been and is that the market is likely to curtail the “swoon effect” professional traders and day traders have been playing since the S&P 500’s record high on October 28. As we get closer to December and the data flow resumes and improves, market participants’ worries may be eased significantly.
The current levels of uncertainty that have roiled the markets of late look to us as providing an opportunity for intermediate - to long -term investors (2, 3, 5 years and beyond) and their advisors to seek out the “babies that get thrown out with the bathwater” in market downdrafts like those we’ve seen since October 28 (the S&P 500’s latest record high).
In our view some high-quality stocks for the long term across the sectors and style (growth and value) have gotten tossed around like hot potatoes by bears, skeptics, and particularly traders and highly leveraged investors.
A recent widely publicized investment by a professional investor recognized as one of the greatest investors of all time in a Mag 7 company steeped in AI signals to us that opportunity is already beginning to offset the risks perceived and otherwise that have roiled some stock prices of late.
Putting things in market historical context suggests to us that as the current period eventually moves into the rearview mirror of time hindsight will show as it often has over the history of the market that opportunity was at hand.
The Q3 Earnings Season
S&P 500 earnings have persisted in surprising to the upside across most sectors for Q3 earnings season. As of last Friday, ten of the eleven sectors were showing positive growth and of those, three (information technology, financials and materials) were showing double-digit earnings gains.
With just under 95% of the S&P 500’s companies having reported, just one sector (energy) was showing negative earnings growth and at a single -digit rate ( -1.7%).
We remain positive on equites and regard them as our favorite asset class. We continue to favor cyclical sectors over defensive sectors. Our favorite sectors include: information technology, communications services, industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary.
With regard to our favor for the consumer discretionary sector we should note that while surveys of consumer sentiment (soft data) reflect concern by the consumer near term about inflation and the economy the hard data (sales) show the consumer continues to shop if somewhat selectively and at a slower pace reflective of some sensitivity to prices.
Should the Fed cut rates by a quarter percent in December the sector is likely to reflect the rate cut positively. In 20 26 we expect the Fed to further cut rates, with the number and magnitude of the moves dependent on the mix of economic data.
Beyond our aforementioned favorite sectors, the utilities sector may see increased favor as interest rates move lower as the sector is often considered a bond proxy that can benefit when rates decline. The sector also has appeal as a thematic sector with prospects for the revitalization of the US electric grid as AI and other technologies increase demand for electricity.
Portfolio diversification among asset classes remains important to meet the needs, goals, objectives, and tolerance to risk for private investors and the needs of mandate-driven institutions in an environment which remains in transition on a number of levels including: fiscal policy, monetary policy, and domestic politics stateside and around the world. Fixed income remains complimentary to stocks as a source of income and for diversification among primary asset classes.
We wish our readers, colleagues, and their families and friends a very happy and safe Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Name:
John Stoltzfus
Title:Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.
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