Asset Management
03/09/2026 Market Strategy
March 09, 2026
Avoid Jumping to Negative Conclusions
Context Matters When Assessing Risks and Opportunities
Key Takeaways
- The war in the Middle East, which brought uncertainty to global markets last week, is likely to remain a key concern for the near-term outlook.
- Crude oil prices jumped 3 5% last week as key shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz (through which a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG pass) were disrupted.
- The trade -weighted dollar index rose 1.3% last week on flight to quality flows even as US bond prices fell sharply on inflation concerns, sending the yield on the 10-year note 20 basis points higher to 4.14%.
- S&P 500 Q4 earnings season are finishing up with strong results. With all but seven companies having reported, earnings growth has reached 13.7% on back of revenue gains of 9. 2 %. Ten of the 11 sectors saw their earnings grow, with four at double-digit rates.
- Last week’s nonfarm payrolls report showed weaker than expected results while the ISM reports showed resilience in the outlooks for both manufacturers and services firms.
- This week brings two reports on consumer prices: the CPI data for February as well as the PCE deflator data (the Fed’s preferred measure) for January.
This week traders and Investors will have at hand a variety of economic data scheduled for release. In addition, the markets will digest Q4 earnings results of the four companies that remain to report this week (with three next week). Market participants will also be looking in the news for any clues as to progress being made to find a resolution to hostilities in the Middle East that have entered a second week.
Last month’s job losses reported last Friday remind us of the volatility inherent historically in the monthly jobs data.
Last week saw an escalation and expansion of the conflagration in the Middle East and increased concerns as to its effect on global growth centered around the passage in the Strait of Hormuz through which some 20% of the world’s oil flows and an even larger portion of global trade passes through.
Stateside gasoline prices at the pump have already moved higher reflecting last week’s 35% surge in the price of WTI crude oil adding to the day -to -day concerns of the consumer already worried about sticky inflation.
The Jobs Number Disappointed
The stock market bounced between gains and losses early in the week on news of developments in the Middle East but sold off broadly at the end of last week on a disappointing non-farm payroll number for the month of January (-92,000 instead of an expected gain of 55,000 jobs in Bloomberg surveys).
Downward revisions to the two prior months job’s numbers and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.2% (also in contrast to Bloomberg’s survey of economists’ expectations for unemployment to have held steady last month) added to a souring in trader sentiment last Friday that led to the downward moves in stocks for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial average, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite the S&P 400 (mid-caps), the S&P 600 (small caps) and the Russell 2000 (small caps) respectively shed 4.04%, 2.44, 2.14%, 5.4%, 5.1%, 5.7% on the week ending last Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial average, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite on a year-to-date basis as of the close last Friday stood respectively lower 1.2%, 1.5%, and 3.7%.
In contrast the small and mid-cap indices show respective gains in the same period of 3.2%, 3.6%, and 1.8% reflecting the rebalancing and repositioning that has moved through stocks stateside as investors sought out diversification over concentrated positioning since early this year.
S&P 500 Q4 results last week continued to surprise to the upside. As of last Friday, Q4 S&P 500 earnings are up with strong results. With all but seven of companies having reported, earnings growth has reached 13.7% on back of revenue gains of 9.2%. Ten of the 11 sectors saw their earnings grow in the period, with four at double-digit rates (industrials, technology, materials and financials). Just one sector is seeing its profits decline (consumer discretionary) in Q4 earnings season.
Just 7 firms remain to report (with 4 firms due this week) and the final three due to report the week of Mar. 16.
So far, in the Q4 earnings season some 74% of firms that have reported are beating their analyst estimates. Last month’s job losses reported last Friday remind us of the volatility inherent historically in the monthly jobs data. In the past, deeply disappointing jobs numbers have often been countered by positive numbers in the month and months to follow proving the volatility embedded in the jobs data as well as some investors’ tendency to jump to conclusions.
What a Difference a Day Can Make
As professional investors, periods like these remind us that patience is a virtue. We recall that as software stocks rallied last week from their lows linked to recent negative projections of how these firms might be impacted by AI.
Right -size expectations while things get sorted out. Give time for cooler heads to prevail. Beware of darkness and don’t believe every news item “pushed to you” on your cellular devices.
Keep current market weakness in perspective given the market’s recent strength and resilience over the last three years and the support that resilience in economic data, corporate results, and the consumer can provide even during periods of economic slowing.
Our Goal is Beyond
We persist focused on the signal and not the noise while not disregarding the latter in a period of transition driven by monetary policy, economic and corporate fundamentals, fiscal policy, geopolitical risk and water shed innovation.
Traders, skeptics , and nervous investors could likely continue this week looking for any catalysts that surface that could be seen as opportunity to take profits on equity positions without FOMO (fear of missing out) in the near term.
We suggest intermediate - and longer -term investors look for “babies that get thrown out with the bath water” in market downdrafts that may occur.
We remain positive in our outlook for the markets and the US economy this year and favor diversification across asset classes, sectors, market capitalizations, and style.
We continue to overweight equities and see fixed income as complementary to equities and useful for current income and diversification.
Name:
John Stoltzfus
Title:Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.
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