Asset Management
06/22/2026 Market Strategy
June 22, 2026
Not Quite Groovin’ But Rockin’ Steady
US and Emerging Market Stocks Show Resilience
Key Takeaways
- US stocks mostly rallied last week as investors hailed the US Iran cease fire agreement that partly re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flowed before the US-Iran war began in late Feb.
- Crude oil prices fell nearly 10% last week as some oil tankers and container ships resumed navigating through the Strait.
- The Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee met last week. The Fed left interest rates unchanged while shifting its stance on monetary policy – removing the easing bias that had been in place for more than two years.
- Last week’s retail sales report showed a broad-based gain in May, suggesting that GDP growth in Q2 may have accelerated from the 1.6% pace of Q1, driven by consumption demand and continued strong business fixed investment spending.
- With S&P 500 Q2 earnings season several weeks away, news flow, economic data, and developments in the Middle East are likely to drive market sentiment in the meantime.
Last week US stocks moved mostly higher not withstanding some volatility tied to geopolitics, inflation, a change of leadership at the Federal Reserve, and AI concerns.
In our view, investors should seek to avoid overconcentration and instead opt for diversification across sectors, market capitalizations, and styles.
On the week, the Dow Jones Industrials Index, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.7%, 0.93%, 2.43%, and 1.22% respectively. In the same period the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and the S&P 600 (small caps) closed essentially flat with a negative bias down 0.13% and 0.03%.
Economic data and the first FOMC meeting with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair were fairly well digested by market participants last week providing stocks with additional momentum even as inflation, the price of oil, and developments in the Middle East remained as negative overhangs for the equity markets.
This week will find investors weighing a trove of economic data that’s scheduled for release over the course of the next four days from Tuesday through Friday. Investors will be looking for any information that can provide clues as to what will carry the market in the days ahead until S&P 500’s Q2 earnings gets underway on July 14 when the big banks begin to report June quarter results.
In addition, any progress in the negotiations between the US and Iran will also be of import this week, particularly for any impact on oil prices.
Keeping Things in Context
Signs of resilience in economic data and positive corporate results in the weeks ahead will be key in our view to market performance that will be navigating what appears to be a transitional period to a new normal in interest rates and sustainable economic growth.
In our view, investors should seek to avoid overconcentration and instead opt for diversification across sectors, market capitalizations, and styles.
We remain of the view that markets will be “quick to discount” both good news and bad news on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis requiring patience from investors. So long as upward trends in equity markets remain supported by fundamentals both traders and intermediate- and longer-term investors should find plenty of opportunities and risks to navigate.
Where We Stand
We remain positive on stocks particularly in the US but also from a global perspective on select international markets once the current conflict in the Middle East moves towards resolution in earnest, and the economic backdrop can move towards “the next new normal.”
Our favorite sectors of the S&P 500 remain: information technology, communications services, industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary.
We continue to favor GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks, and “growthier” value (avoiding value traps) and the weighting of cyclical sectors and stocks over defensives.
We suggest intermediate- to longer-term investors consider the importance of diversification across sectors, market caps, and style (growth vs. value) and avoid overconcentration in positioning portfolios.
Name:
John Stoltzfus
Title:Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.
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