Oppenheimer
The Big Shifts Ahead: A 2026 Outlook
December 16, 2025
Key Takeaways:
- AI dominated 2025, with infrastructure spending reaching unprecedented scale.
- Healthcare, space tech, defense tech, and infrastructure are emerging as major investment themes for 2026.
- Valuations are elevated, but supported by stronger fundamentals than prior speculative cycles.
- Regulatory shifts and geopolitical uncertainty are representative of various tailwinds and headwinds that could create increased market volatility.
- U.S. innovation remains resilient, reinforcing long-term confidence in domestic growth.
In this episode of Let’s Talk Future™, Oppenheimer President & CEO Robert (Rob) Lowenthal joins host Jane Ross to reflect on the developments that defined 2025 and the forces poised to influence markets in 2026. Rob examines the year’s volatility—from early optimism, to tariff-driven disruptions, to a late-year resurgence powered by AI and open capital markets—and discusses why the current AI infrastructure build-out represents a durable, multi-year investment cycle supported by significant corporate commitment.
Rob highlights several areas positioned for meaningful capital deployment in the year ahead, including advances in healthcare and biotechnology, the growing commercial space economy, continued defense innovation, and major infrastructure modernization efforts. While acknowledging elevated valuations, he notes that today’s environment differs markedly from past speculative periods due to stronger fundamentals, disciplined capital allocation, and clearer revenue models.
The conversation explores how regulatory developments and geopolitical uncertainty may shape market behavior, while reaffirming confidence in the strength of U.S. innovation and the entrepreneurial ecosystem that continues to support long-term growth. Rob closes by underscoring the enduring importance of relationships and trust—principles that have long guided Oppenheimer’s approach and remain central to how we help clients navigate an evolving and increasingly complex market landscape.
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