Asset Management
04/13/2026 Market Strategy
April 13, 2026
Keep On Keepin’ On
Progress, Not Perfection, Likely Key Gauge of Progress
Key Takeaways
- Equity markets rallied , and the dollar slid 1.4% last week as a cease -fire agreement took hold and negotiations began between the US and Iran at finding a workable solution to their differences that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market rally wobbled late in the week as the agreement came under some questioning by Iran.
- Last week’s inflation data showed a sharp rise in the headline price index in March, driven by energy costs. The “core” index (ex. food and energy), however, rose a more benign 0.2% in the month taking some of the sting out of the headline number.
- This week brings the start of Q1 earnings season when one of the large investment banks reports earnings today. FactSet put bottoms -up earnings estimates at 12.6% from a year-earlier. If achieved, this would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double -digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.
US equity markets experienced a broad rally on the week ended last Friday notwithstanding a wobble late in the week after Iran contested the adherence to the agreement by the US raising concern among some market participants as to the ability of the agreement to succeed in bringing about a sustainable halt to hostilities and an effective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz effectively.
In our view the returns of the major US equity indices show resilience as well as some sensitivity to headline risk.
This week we expect developments in the Middle East will continue to remain on the front burner of concern for global markets. That said, the unofficial start to S&P 500 earnings season this week (as the big US banks begin to report) will likely garner plenty of attention with results and any guidance offered by managements a key focus for traders and investors.
Last Week’s Market Action
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 400 (mid -caps), the S&P 600 (small caps) and the Russell 2000 Small Caps rallied respectively last week: 3.0%, 3.6%, 4.7%, 3.4%, 3.8%%, and 4%.
From the end of February when hostilities broke out in the Middle East to the stateside market close last Friday the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 600 (small caps) have returned respective gains of 1.04% and 0.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500, the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and the Russell 2000 (small caps) have respectively shed: 2.7%, 0.9%, 1.5% , and 0.07%.
In our view the returns of the major US equity indices show resilience as well as some sensitivity to headline risk.
As the conflict with Iran enters its seventh week persistent concern about the time it will take to arrive at an effective resolution to the conflict will, however, likely remain for now as a negative overhang for market participants to navigate.
International markets, particularly those dependent on imported oil and LNG sourced from the Middle East and logistically dependent on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain sensitive to any change to the flow of oil in the weeks ahead.
In our view, the success of the cease-fire agreement would be a good start to moving the economies dependent on the flow of oil and goods through the Strait of Hormuz out of the worry zone from a market perspective. What exactly will be required for that to take place remains in the hands of the negotiators involved in seeking an agreement and the military command.
For now, market participants, businesses, and consumers around the globe likely will remain reminded day to day of the importance of fossil fuel and its role as the key lubricant to global trade and the global economy.
Tensions remain likely to ebb and flow along with the pricing of goods affected across the world dependent to no small degree on any degree of progress made at the negotiation table in arriving at an acceptable resolution for all sides in the current conflict.
We remain positive in our outlook for the markets and the US economy this year with “resilience” the operative word for providing the market with enough opportunities to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”
We continue to overweight equities, favor diversification across asset classes, sectors, market capitalizations, and style and see fixed income as complementary to equities and useful for current income and diversification.
Name:
John Stoltzfus
Title:Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other notable networks.
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