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The Markets and Fed; Less Divergence and More Convergence?
Our strategic guidance calls for close examination of muni/Treasury relationships with the identification of cheapening momentum during those times when munis lag in performance.
The Half-Time Show
Munis can also be a source of more reliable fixed income performance, particularly if supportive technicals are in place with tax-exempts often exhibiting social distancing from U.S. Treasury securities, which tend to reveal more front-line reaction to economic developments as well as to fiscal and monetary policies
The Fed Has Opened Up Some Doors as Uncertainty Weighs Heavily Upon the Markets
Although funds have seen 13 consecutive weeks of outflows, we are nearing the end of the cycle and we should begin to see, at the very least, intermittent inflows given the approaching conclusion to the Fed’s tightening sequence, a pronounced net-negative supply backdrop, and the need to position muni portfolios more defensively ahead of economic contraction
Stay Cautious, But Stay Engaged And Nimble
We contend that a normalized supply-build could move ratios to more attractive levels, with the 10-year ratio moving closer to fair value and with the 30-year approaching full value.
Smiles, Everyone, Smiles - Welcome to 2023
There is nothing like starting off a new year with a reference to 1970s/1980s TV.
Running On Empty
The ongoing concerns over future economic growth and the potential for further bank displacements with tightening credit conditions have set market expectations for a Central Bank pause beyond this week’s FOMC meeting.
Recognizing Opportunity Through the Noise
While the muni market may not be chock full of excitement today, the stars seem aligned to capture deployable cash.
Politicians May Have the Secret Documents, but Munis Have the Secret Sauce
Bond valuations are being driven by growth expectations and calibrations for anticipated recession, yet monetary policy remains influential.